AI Reality — Human in the Loop

Who's Writing the Cheques?

Sixteen players, six kinds of exposure. The two labs are the revenue side of the bet; the money side is the companies writing the cheques, and the leverage side is the ones borrowing to build. Pick up to four to see them side by side.

Solvency — can fail Keystone — if it stumbles, others follow Compression — survives, reprices Supplier — demand cliff, not solvency Collateral — leases, loans, power Watch — data too thin or unverified

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FCF negative or near-zero free cash flow · DEP one customer ≥40% of revenue, or existential dependence on one counterparty · CREDIT credit-default swaps, rating, off-balance-sheet or debt-growth stress. Dimmed = no evidence found in the filings we checked. Amber = evidence exists but is unverified.

Pick up to four players above

The honest caveat

Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta don't disclose AI revenue. We can see what they spend, not what it earns.

Their capex, commitments and cash flow come straight from filings and earnings calls. Their AI revenue is a proxy at best (Cloud, Azure, AWS), and we say so in the table rather than inventing a split. Private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, SoftBank's marks, Nebius's customers) are shown only where a filing, a company statement or a named outlet's figure exists; otherwise the cell says so. Disclosure: Innovare uses Claude, made by Anthropic, to produce this work.