Innovare AI Index · AI Reality
A weekly read on the financial health of the AI build-out. Not a prediction — a set of gauges. Every number is real, sourced, and updated on a cadence, so you can watch the signals move for yourself.
What moved this week: Anthropic filed to go public at ~$2 trillion while warning investors of "catastrophic or existential" risk; NVIDIA answered with a record $235B buyback; the RBA lifted Australian rates to a 15-year high; and Goldman put the industry's break-even gap near $300 billion a year.
Every verified data point in one place. Search it, or filter by theme, then click any figure to jump to the chart it lives in.
AI capital spending against a century of humanity's largest bets, measured as a share of the economy that paid for each one. open full ↗
What's holding the bet up, layer by layer — the capital, the debt and IOUs, the market concentration, and the damage if it falls. Click the bricks; topple the tower. open full ↗
The US and China aren't spending the same, or paying the same way. Click either side to see how it's funded. open full ↗
OpenAI and Anthropic's own revenue forecasts, set against what they've already promised to spend. open full ↗
The two labs are the revenue side of the bet. This is the money side and the leverage side: sixteen players, six kinds of exposure, three flags each, every cell from a filing or a named outlet. Pick up to four to compare. open full ↗
The circular-financing loop, and the verified filings where the same dollar is booked as revenue at every stop. open full ↗
AI Vital Signs is refreshed weekly, alongside each edition of the Innovare AI Index. The fast-moving gauges such as prices, rates, filings and buybacks update every week, while the slower structural gauges such as GDP share, off-balance-sheet debt and market concentration move as new data lands, and we flag which changed. Every figure is drawn from a primary or authoritative source — company filings and earnings, central banks and institutions (BIS, the Bank of England, the IMF, the IEA), major banks' research, and established outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg and Reuters — and each is dated on its card and linked below.
We only publish numbers we can verify. Where a figure is an estimate or a company's own projection, it is flagged as such; figures measured on different accounting bases are shown separately and never added together. When a source is superseded, we update the figure and note what changed.
We have made our best effort to use only verifiable data from reputable sources, all of which are provided below so you can check them yourself. Some figures are estimates or forward-looking projections, and the future is uncertain.
This page is for information and education only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax or other professional advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or to make any financial decision. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before acting.
